Drafting 4th: Strategy and Analysis

One of my most competitive leagues is a twelve manager league that I have been a part of for 4 years running. It's a league that has the word "elite" in it's name and it truly is a league like no other. The managers are all very active and very aggressive. Even the guys in last place are still managing their teams and picking up players through the playoffs and toilet bowl. As soon as a starting player is injured, you have five guys online simultaneously trying to pick up his back up. This is a very competitive league with a year round message board that boasts over 40,000 messages a year. It's really insane. We meet every year on Labor Day weekend at a conference center in Chicago and have our live draft.

But as you will see, even the most competitive, aggressive, fantasy sharks make mistakes. The key is to take advantage of these mistakes and use them to your advantage.

To your right are the final 12 teams at the end of the draft. My team is the fourth team down. Our scoring system is as follows:
6 points all TDs
.05 point passing yards
.1 point rushing and receiving yards
0.25 points per reception
Defensive scoring is heavily weighted, a shut out is worth 10 points, graduated down to 0 points for allowing a score of 21-24 points, and any defense that allows over 35 points gets -10 fantasy points.

We start:
QB
2RB
2WR
TE
Flex (TE/WR/RB)
PK
DEF
5 bench spots (total of 14 roster spots, 14 draft rounds)

So how did the draft go? The first three picks of the draft went as predicted.

01.01 Larry Johnson

The first pick by the first team's manager was LJ. I would have taken LT or Shaun, but you can't blame anyone for any of those three picks.

01.02 Shaun Alexander
01.03 LaDainian Tomlinson

The next two managers followed suit and chose as expected. Can't fault them here.

01.04 Ronnie Brown

With the fourth pick overall I had to take Ronnie Brown. The only other options I would have considered here are Tiki, Caddy, and Steven Jackson. After watching a lot of preseason it seems that Gruden will still give the goal line touches to Alstott, so Caddy dropped. Steven Jackson was very appealing, but a new coach, new offensive coordinator and the recent signing of Stephen Davis scared me off. Tiki has the most brutal schedule of any team in the NFL this year. Yes, he is a stud and a yardage machine, but their schedule is next to impossible. Not to mention, Brandon Jacobs taking all the short yardage and goal line action. Ronnie Brown has no competition in his backfield and Saban loves to run, run, run. The Dolphins schedule is among the easiest this year, with only one game in cold weather. Easy choice!

01.05 Steven Jackson

Team 5 took Steven Jackson, a reasonable pick if you are scared off by Tiki's schedule. In fact, if I had the 5th pick, I would have done the same thing.

01.06 Tiki Barber

The 6th manager did the deed and took Tiki. Not sure why. I just don't like Tiki this year. He has on and off years, this is a good year to have an off year. Their division, the NFC East is brutal; Dallas, Philly, Washington. Wow!

01.07 Edgerrin James

The 7th manager took the Edge. A little early for Edge, they haven't rushed well in the last few years. We did see what Emmit Smith could do, maybe Edge will excel. But you could have had Edge later, very few draft boards had him ranked this high. I would have drafted him in the 13-20 range overall.

01.08 Rudi Johnson

This is a very good pick. With Chris Perry out for most of the year, Rudi will be the man. With such a respectable passing offense, the ground game will be wide open. In fact, I may have even taken Rudi as the 4th overall pick. This was a steal.

01.09 LaMont Jordan

Great pick. Jordan was the 8th ranked fantasy back!

01.10 Clinton Portis

Team 3 got to pick here again, due to a trade with team 10. Don't like Portis here! Way to early! Too many questions about his shoulder and TJ Duckett taking goal lines. Now has Portis and LT. Not a bad start, but could have had the Caddy or Westbrook! Portis is just not going to do well with all we know about his injury.

01.11 Cadillac Williams

I love the Cadillac and had him ranked as a top 5 RB at one point this year. I would have taken Caddy over Tiki, but Caddy's division is pretty tough with Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans. So he drops lower than Ronnie Brown, but ahead of Tiki. Nice pick up as 11th overall.

01.12 Brian Westbrook

Westbrook is a steal. Finished 18th overall despite playing only 12 games. Should have a stellar year. We reward some points for recpetions, and he gets tons of passes. Supposedly, Philly wants to run more and is looking for a bigger back, but they say that every year and revert to their comfort zone when games are on the line. I don't see any drop in production for Westbrook.

02.01 Peyton Manning

The guy who just picked Westbrook brilliantly, just picked Peyton woefully. Any time you take a QB, no matter who it is before picks 18-20, you are screwing yourself. This is an awful pick. This pick actually exposed this manager as fantasy newbie. In this league, we have the ability to start 3 RBs (2 RBs and a Flex that can be an RB) and not chosing a second stud RB is a killer. This pick will do him in. He still has time to recover, let's see what happens.

02.02 Willie Parker

Team 11 takes Willie and now has Caddy and Willie. Solid RBs. Now he can focus on other needs, and grab top WRs. Love this pick. Another option here could have been Dunn. Without Duckett, Dunn is the man in Atlanta and they do lead the league in total rushing for the last two years. The only questions about Willie are his durability and the Pitt offense. Are they actually going to have an offense?

02.03 Willis McGahee

Team 10 takes McGahee. Would have taken Dunn, I try to avoid Buffalo Bills offensive players.

02.04 Warrick Dunn

Team 9 now has Dunn and Jordan, a great combo.

02.05 Steve Smith

Now he has Rudi and Smith. I probably would not have taken Smith or a WR this early. But if you look at other options, Smith is probably the best pick at this point.

02.06 Kevin Jones

I try to avoid Lions. Now Team 7 has Jones and Edge. Not bad, not bad.

02.07 Reggie Bush

A logical pick at this point. But personally, I would not have taken him. All draft boards and cheat sheets and software say this is the best pick at this point. So now Team 6 has Tiki and Bush. A strange pairing, but not bad so far. He still managed to avoid weeks 6 and 7 for bye weeks, which is very smart.

02.08 Chad Johnson

Team 5 now has Steven Jackson and Chad. Not bad. I am not a fan of Chad this year. I see a drop off in production, too many offensive weapons. I would have taken an RB at this point due to the abundance of WRs. If you really wanted a WR, take Boldin or Fitzgerald.

02.09 DeShaun Foster

My Team, Team 4, took DeShaun Foster. I have been coveting DeShaun for quite sometime and really wanted him. Carolina loves to run and he puts up huge numbers. I could have taken a WR at this point, but the WRs that I wanted (Fitz and Boldin) were not coming off the board. So I was confident that I would at least have one of them. Now I have DeShaun and Ronnie Brown with bye weeks 9 and 8, respectively. That means I will be playing 7 weeks straight with my two RBs. Of course, I will eventually need to get Foster’s backup, knowing his history. With these two guys, I also manage to avoid bye week hell in weeks 6 and 7, wherein 1/3 of all NFL teams will be off those weeks due to new rules. At this point in the draft I am ecstatic and very pleased that I got my top two targets. Hopefully, my WR targets will fall to me.

02.10 Chester Taylor

Team 10 chooses here because of trade with Team 3. Team 10 now has Chester and McGahee. Not bad for having traded out of the first round.

02.11 Julius Jones

Now Team 2 has Shaun and Julius. A decent combination of RBs. I may have opted for a top flight WR here, especially seeing that the RB crowd is thinning. You can easily pickup Julius-like talent later in the RB department. No one really knows how Parcell’s will use him. I try to avoid these backfields.

02.12 Larry Fitzgerald

Team 1 took Fitzgerald and I was saddened. He was one of my top two WR prospects. I really wanted Boldin and Fitz. Now Team 1 has LJ and Fitz. Not a bad combo, especially since the remaining RB prospects are a dime a dozen. Personally, I would have taken another RB, since that position is getting thinner and thinner.

03.01 Marvin Harrison

Team 1 then takes Harrison. Not a bad way to diversify your WR talent. I honestly would have taken Boldin. I have Fitz and Boldin as my top two WRs, and I don’t mind having both of them. Both have a week 9 bye, long after most fantasy seasons are into full swing. Harrison, I don’t like as much, because Wayne is pretty much the No 1 in Indy now, just like Houshmanzadeh is in Cincy. Yes, Harrison and Chad will get their tosses, but these guys will take away a ton of points.

03.02 Torry Holt

Team 2 takes Holt. I am very excited that I may get my man in Boldin. Team 2 now has Shaun, Julius, and Holt. Team 2’s manager loves Holt and usually drafts him. Last year I had Holt and he was injured for most of the year. I’m glad he took Holt, so I can still eye my WR.

03.03 Anquan Boldin

Due to a trade, Team 10 takes Boldin here. This is where I became saddened. Team 10 now has McGahee, Chester, and Boldin. Not too bad, but not too exciting either. Not bad for trading out of first round. I really wanted Boldin and had him No 1 on my WR list. He played 2 less games than Fitz, yet still put up similar numbers.

03.04 Randy Moss

My Team took Randy Moss. At this point I could have taken an RB like Gore or Droughns, but the drop off in talent at the WR spot by the time my next pick came up was too much. I had to take Randy. I had him ranked very highly on my list, and by the time the draft came back to me, 17 picks later, there would be very few talented WRs left. Now I have Ronnie, Foster, and Randy.

03.05 Frank Gore

Team 5 took Gore. Team 5 loves drafting RBs. Last year, I think he drafted like 7 in a row. He now has Steven Jackson, Chad Johnson, and Gore. I think Johnson went too early, but nonetheless a solid draft. I think he learned his lesson from last year when he had absolutely no WR talent.

03.06 Chris Chambers

Team 6 took the next best WR. Although you could argue that TO should go here since he is on a proven team with a proven offense, Chambers is ranked appropriately here. Chambers has a much easier schedule as well. Now he has Tiki, Reggie Bush, and Chamber. A pretty decent start. Very strong draft so far. A lot of his success will depend on how Bush performs and how he will be used.

03.07 Terrell Owens

Team 7 took Owens to add to Edge and Kevin Jones. Not a bad pairing. Owens should have a big year down in Big D. Proven QB, proven offense, lots of offensive weapons to roll coverage away from him, he should do very well.

03.08 Reuben Droughns

Team 8 took Droughns adding to Steve Smith and Rudi Johnson. Not too bad so far. He has his top WR, needs another RB. Pretty good pick here.

03.09 Reggie Wayne

Team 9 took Wayne to add to Jordan and Dunn. Very nice, especially since Wayne will be the No 1 man in Indy this year! Strong drafting so far!

03.10 Hines Ward

Team 10 took Ward to add to Chester and McGahee. Don’t like this pick at all. Ward is injured, may not start till later this year. We all saw what hamstrings do to WR in Moss and others. If he really wanted a WR, Ward is not the best option. Pittsburgh WRs are just not that productive. But this manager loves Ward and has had him every year. I would have taken another RB, like a Mike Bell or Domanic Rhodes at this pointm because the rest of the WR are just not highly rated. If he really wanted a WR, he should have taken TJ Housh or Plaxico.

03.11 Dominic Rhodes

Team 11 took Rhodes to add to Caddy and Parker. Not bad. I may have opted for a WR at this point. Especially, like TJ Housh and Plaxico. But Rhodes does start and did get a 1000 yards when Edge was out.

03.12 Mike Bell

Team 12 took Mike Bell adding to his collection of Westbrook and Peyton. When you don’t draft a quality RB early, and you grab a QB, you end up with crappy RBs. Yes, Bell may be the next superstar, but you should avoid backfields that are questionable. No one even really knows if he is the starter or not. Shanahan said he may start any of his 3 RBs and that they should all practice hard. Who knows!

04.01 Santana Moss

Team 12 then took the 4 foot 3 inch Santana Moss. I try to avoid all WAS WRs. The tallest one is Lloyd at 6’0”, barely! WAS offense looks pathetic, without Portis, they will look even worse. Nothing good will come out of WAS this year. Now Team 12 has Westbrook, Peyton, Bell and Moss. Not smelling so good at this point.

04.02 Carson Palmer

Team 11 grabs Palmer adding to Caddy, Parker, Rhodes. I guess WRs are not important to him. Last year, he did not draft WRs till really late and got by with the likes of Eddie Kennison for most of the year, went 15-1 and won our superbowl. Maybe I should be taking notes. I have Palmer as my top QB this year along with McNabb as No 2. With Manning somewhere below. This is a good grab.

04.03 Tom Brady

Team 10 thought a run on QBs was starting and grabbed what he thought the next best QB would be, in grabbing Brady. Brady will not put up 2005 numbers again. Their run game will be fine this year. He now has McGahee, Chester, Boldin and Brady. Looks pretty good so far, although the RBs could use some help. At this point I would have taken a top flight WR. You can easily pickup Brady-like QB talent later. And if you really want a QB, you should be picking McNabb.

04.04 Roy Williams

Team 9 took Roy adding to Jordan, Dunn, and Wayne. Not bad. But why a Detroit Lion WR? Avoid all Lion offensive players. Should have gone with Housh.

04.05 Antonio Gates

Team 8 took Gates adding to Rudi, Droughns, and Steve Smith. Personally, I don’t pick TEs this early unless there is enormous value. Yes, most draft boards have Gates going early in the third round and this is the 5th pick of the 4th round, but you have to consider that most league have only 1 starting RB. Hence, it’d make sense to go RB, WR, TE in your first 3 rounds. But in our league, with the possibility of starting 3 RBs, RBs are very scarce and you can’t be making these type of picks. This is about a round too early to start with TEs. And if you want a TE, why Gates? New QB? Too many questions. I would have gone with Benjamin Watson or Heap with a proven offense and a proven QB. He was probably using a vanilla cheat sheet from Yahoo or some other mass mark, dummy-friendly website.

04.06 Joe Horn

Team 7 took Horn adding to his team of Edge, K Jones, and TO. Horn is the full No 1 guy in New Orleans and is not a bad pick. I can’t blame him at this point for not taking a stellar No 2 WR on a better offensive team. He is gambling that a No 1 guy on a questionable offense with a new QB and new coach and new RB situation is better than a No 2 WR (like Housh) on a lights out offense. A lot more upside. Let’s see what happens.

04.07 Jamal Lewis

Team 6 took team Jamal. Now he has Tiki, Bush, Chambers and Lewis. Not a bad start, but Bush and Lewis have the same bye week. I would have opted for a WR. Lewis-like talent can be had later, unless you think he will put up 2004 numbers and 2000 yards, which is quite possible. If it was me, I’d take Houshmanzadeh.

04.08 Plaxico Burress

Team 5 took Plaxico, who I am normally high on. But due to their schedule and the defenses they face in their division, he has dropped on my list, but still a pretty good pick. Team 5 now has Steven Jackson, Chad Johnson, Frank Gore and now Plaxico. Not too bad a good mix of talent.

04.09 T.J. Houshmandzadeh

With my pick, I finally get the WR I have been hoping would fall to me. With a bye week of week 5, I still avoid fantasy hell in weeks 6 and 7. My team now consists of R Brown, Foster, Randy Moss and now Housh. Not bad so far. I got my top two RBs that I wanted, two of the four WRs that I wanted and have managed to avoid the bye week disaster this year with my top 4 picks. I feel very confident and happy so far. It’s still the first 4 rounds, and usually the next 5 rounds are when things get really crazy and when managers start to flail and make serious mistakes.

04.10 Corey Dillon

Team 3 took Corey Dillon adding to LT and Portis. He missed out on rounds 2 and 3 because of his trading. A lot of depth at the RB position, but almost nothing else at this point. He will have to try to recover with his extra later round picks.

04.11 Thomas Jones

Team 2 took Jones, the Bears starter for the foreseeable future, until Benson shapes up and makes some friends. Also has Shaun, Julius, and Holt. His lack of RB talent last year hurt him, now he looks like he is compensating. Jones is a steal at this point and the remaining WR talent or TE talent is not worth the pick. If I had to go WR at this point I would have taken Donald Driver, clearly the No 1 guy in GB and finished last year as a top 12 WR. Another RB suggestion at this point may have been Ahman Green, but his bye week situation may have dictated that Jones is the best option.

04.12 Deuce McAllister

Team 1 took Deuce adding to LJ, Fitz, and Harrison. At one point Deuce was always a top 5 pick overall. Injuries have hurt him over the years. If Deuce plays up to par, he will have a tremendous year and keep Bush on the bench and limit Bushes touches. Deuce is still young and can produce. Against tougher defenses, he played much better than Bush and is able to plow through defenders. Love this pick here. What a steal.

Breaking Point:
The first few rounds are very predictable and vanilla. Most people go off their draft sheets and draft in a very predictable fashion. The next few rounds are the crucial rounds. Most fantasy mistakes are made in rounds 5-12, as you will see. Even the top managers and most diligent fantasy players make mistakes, without a strategy and without practicing in mock drafts, you are bound to falter.

05.01 Ahman Green

On the turn around, team 1 takes Ahman to add to his collection of LJ, and Duece McAllister. A pretty strong group of starting RBs. He also has Fitzgerald and Harrison. So he is looking good at this point. I probably would have taken Donald Driver at this point due to the drop off in talent at WR after Driver. But not too bad so far. He only has 2 receivers.

05.02 Darrell Jackson

Team 2 took D. Jax. Everyone's favorite Seattle WR. There are always questions about his health and how much he will play, this year, similar questions. I would avoid him. But he now has anice collection of players; Shaun Alexander, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, and Torry Holt. I personally avoid injury problem receivers and RBs, especially this high. If he wanted a WR, he should have taken a guy like Driver who put up serious numbers last year.

The picks are listed below, the analysis is forthcoming.

05.03 Joseph Addai
05.04 Donald Driver
05.05 Fred Taylor
05.06 Tatum Bell
05.07 Donovan McNabb
05.08 Jeremy Shockey
05.09 Lee Evans
05.10 Derrick Mason
05.11 Joey Galloway
05.12 Wali Lundy
06.01 Todd Heap
06.02 Terry Glenn
06.03 Tony Gonzalez
06.04 Matt Hasselbeck
06.05 Laurence Maroney
06.06 Marion Barber III
06.07 Jake Delhomme
06.08 Javon Walker
06.09 DeAngelo Williams
06.10 Andre Johnson
06.11 Eli Manning
06.12 Daunte Culpepper
07.01 Antonio Bryant
07.02 Rod Smith
07.03 Reggie Brown
07.04 Ben Watson
07.05 Alge Crumpler
07.06 Eddie Kennison
07.07 Donte Stallworth
07.08 Jason Witten
07.09 Cedric Benson
07.10 Chris Brown
07.11 Randy McMichael
07.12 Muhsin Muhammad
08.01 Matt Jones
08.02 Ernest Wilford
08.03 Chris Cooley
08.04 Dallas Clark
08.05 Nate Burleson
08.06 L.J. Smith
08.07 Heath Miller
08.08 Marc Bulger
08.09 Michael Clayton
08.10 Kurt Warner
08.11 Keenan McCardell
08.12 Kevan Barlow
09.01 Mike Anderson
09.02 Laveranues Coles
09.03 Isaac Bruce
09.04 Drew Bledsoe
09.05 Travis Henry
09.06 Troy Williamson
09.07 Domanick Davis
09.08 T.J. Duckett
09.09 Keyshawn Johnson
09.10 Brandon Lloyd
09.11 Carolina
09.12 Chris Perry
10.01 Chicago
10.02 Mark Clayton
10.03 Ben Roethlisberger
10.04 Brandon Jacobs
10.05 Samkon Gado
10.06 Eric Moulds
10.07 Michael Vick
10.08 Braylon Edwards
10.09 Tampa Bay
10.10 David Givens
10.11 Steve McNair
10.12 Drew Bennett
11.01 Drew Brees
11.02 Pittsburgh
11.03 Baltimore
11.04 Aaron Brooks
11.05 Trent Green
11.06 Correll Buckhalter
11.07 Jerious Norwood
11.08 Jake Plummer
11.09 Kellen Winslow Jr
11.10 LenDale White
11.11 Neil Rackers
11.12 Joe Jurevicius
12.01 Vernand Morency
12.02 Byron Leftwich
12.03 Deion Branch
12.04 Seattle
12.05 Brett Favre
12.06 Greg Jennings
12.07 Corey Bradford
12.08 Indianapolis
12.09 Michael Turner
12.10 Michael Bennett
12.11 Maurice Jones-Drew
12.12 Shayne Graham
13.01 Zach Hilton
13.02 David Akers
13.03 Jon Kitna
13.04 Chris Simms
13.05 Mewelde Moore
13.06 NY Giants
13.07 Philadelphia
13.08 Travis Taylor
13.09 Philip Rivers
13.10 Jacksonville
13.11 Ciatrick Fason
13.12 Mark Brunell
14.01 Jay Feely
14.02 Chris Henry
14.03 Moe Williams
14.04 Jeff Wilkins
14.05 New England
14.06 Nate Kaeding
14.07 Jason Elam
14.08 John Kasay
14.09 Derrick Blaylock
14.10 Lawrence Tynes
14.11 Maurice Morris
14.12 Miami