I was recently involved in a 12 team live draft and wanted to share my strategy (now that the draft is over). I had the 3rd pick overall. Of course, my strategy may not work with your league, it all depends on your scoring scheme. The scoring system that we have is as follows:
6 pts all TDs
.25 per reception (this is the only WCOFF deviation)
no special bonus points for any milestones
Starting positions: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1WR/RB, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF, 6Bench
Strategy for 3rd pick in 12 team league:
Discussing draft strategy is very important, discussing the logic behind our drafting strategies helps us all learn from each other's mistakes. We are all here to learn and the more we debate and discuss drafting strategy, the better we will become and dominate our other leagues.
I analyzed last year's scoring and results, and our league heavily favored QBs and RBs. Because, we only had to start 1QB, I decided to grab as many RBs as possible that are starters.
In our league we essentially start 3RBs, thanks to the flex option. This means that with 12 teams, that's 36 RBs. So not everyone will have 3 starting RBs. Because RBs are so limited and so important in our scoring, I went with 4 RBs in a row. Besides, only about 23 RBs are actually really "starters". I picked them according to my own rankings and projections from a website I really like (ffbmonthly.com), not the default yahoo garbage.
My first 4 picks: Ahman Green, Thomas Jones, Quentin Griffin, Julius Jones.
After all the RBs, I had to pick the next best position which was QB. In our scoring system, QBs are important. Yes, I could have waited for a QB at a later time, but, a top 5 QB was presented, and I had Trent Green at the top of my list. I was not going to draft a backup QB at all, because I can always grab one off waivers.
Fitfth pick: Trent Green
Then I went to WRs. Because our league only awards .25 per reception, WRs are not very valuable. Very few WRs gain more than 100 yards/game. So it's rare that a WR would score more than 10 points per week. So after Moss, Harrison, Ward, and Holt were gone, the rest of the WRs were all pretty much 6-7 point per game guys. Then the next tier is of 2-4 point per games guys. This makes them almost worthless.
So I drafted 6 receivers, all 2nd and 3rd tier guys, and two 4th tier guys that have potential. M. Muhammad looked real good in pre-season and DelHomme liked him, so I chose him instead of others, besides S. Smith didn't look like himself, and his injury may still be nagging him. Plus Branch was going to be Brady's main man, so I picked him. I tried to pick receivers in offenses that scored lots of points, so I got Kennison as well, cuz Morton is gone, so he and Hall had to carry the load.
My picks: Rod Smith, Deion Branch, Brandon Llyod, Eddie Kennison, Donald Driver, Muhsin Muhhamad. (Not bad, R. Smith was a steal, will finish top 20)
My philosophy is to never draft a DEF, TE, or K until my last three picks. Of those 3 positions, DEF scores the most on a weekly basis, so I try to grab a DEF first. Because I wanted Denver's defense, and I thought no one else wanted them, I decided to wait and take a TE before my DEF. I have Denver's defense ranked as a top 5 DEF, but no one else did, so I was planning to take them last.
I took Daniel Graham as my TE, simply beause I had him last year at the beginning of the year and he did well, while NE was 0-2. He had some nice TDs in the pre-season, and Brady likes him. He is still ahead of Watson, so while they may share time, Graham is a safe bet on a winning team, that scores a lot.
My Pick: Daniel Graham
Then, another manager began asking about Denver's defense. I tried to play them down, but was almost pissing my pants. Eventually, he took too long, and was jumped by the next manager, then I jumped in I and wrote in Denver, and that guy still hadn't picked a defense yet. I took Denver's defense and was relieved.
Finally, I took Minnesota's kicker, Aaron Elling, and it turns out he was released. So I dropped him the next day for Longwell, the GB kicker. With Green and Favre having 55 TDs, he should net at least 55 PATs.
That was my overall strategy.
I really have no regrets and feel very confident with my strategy. A lot of other managers have criticized me taking 4 RBs in a row and not grabbing a top WR, but I did the math and the research, and WRs are not very valuable in our league after the first two tiers are depleted. I feel confident that my team will play well, barring any injuries, bad news, or poor performance. Besides Rod Smith is th No. 1 receiver on Denver, and no one picked him. He should finish in the top 20.
What do you all think? Discuss this in our forum.